Forecasting 2025: A Year in Review
It’s that time of year again. Every January 1, the Future Perfect team makes forecasts for the events we think will (or won’t) happen over the next 365 days. And every December 31, we review those predictions and assess our accuracy.
For 2025, all predictions were made positively—indicating something will likely happen—and came with probabilities attached to express our confidence. To simplify scoring, a prediction was marked as a “correct call” if it had a greater than 50 percent probability and proved true, or if it had a less than 50 percent probability and did not prove true. Conversely, predictions scoring above 50 percent that failed or below 50 percent that succeeded were marked “incorrect call.” If clarity was not achieved due to unforeseen circumstances—like delayed reports—we marked it as undecided.
The final scorecard illustrates our forecasting abilities: 19 correct calls, 4 incorrect, and 2 undecided, granting us a notable winning percentage of .800, placing us above the esteemed 1906 Chicago Cubs, known for their unparalleled season.
As always, the objective is not merely to keep score, but to enhance our forecasting skills by recognizing successes, failures, and potential areas for more daring predictions. Fortunately, another opportunity arises tomorrow, as we prepare to unveil our 2026 forecasts. —Bryan Walsh
Congress Passes a Major Tariff Bill (20 percent) — CORRECT CALL
2025 saw significant developments in tariff policies, largely stemming from the Trump administration’s executive decisions. Initially, there was speculation that the Republicans’ tax bill would require new tariffs. However, many anticipated that Donald Trump would resort to unilateral imposition of tariffs, which indeed transpired.
Trump Dissolves the Department of Education (5 percent) — CORRECT CALL
The prediction hinged on the legal abolishment of the Department of Education by Congress, which did not occur. Nevertheless, Trump instructed measures that effectively gutted the department, though legal experts clarify that only Congress can achieve its formal dissolution.
The Affordable Care Act is Repealed (30 percent) — CORRECT CALL
While significant cuts were made to the ACA through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, these did not constitute a full repeal of the legislation. The cuts mainly targeted Medicaid and ACA exchanges, which fall short of the comprehensive repeal initially predicted.
Jerome Powell Will No Longer Be Fed Chair (10 percent) — CORRECT CALL
Despite Trump’s public discontent with Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair retained his position. Powell’s term ends in May 2026, meaning he will still be in place while Trump is expected to nominate his successor.
Trump Will Have a Positive Favorability Rating (25 percent) — CORRECT CALL
Polling averages indicate that Trump’s disapproval ratings have risen significantly, showcasing the challenges he faces in regaining a favorable public perception.
Musk and Trump are Still Friends at the End of the Year (40 percent) — CORRECT CALL
While there were instances of public disagreement between Trump and Musk, no outright disparagement led to a formal end to their friendship throughout the year.
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s Preliminary Estimates of Car Crash Deaths for 2024 Will Be Lower Than 40,000 (70 percent) — CORRECT CALL
Finally, positive developments in traffic safety have emerged as the United States managed to bring down car fatalities below this crucial benchmark, marking a notable achievement during a troubling time.
California’s Animal Agriculture Law Proposition 12 Will Not Be Overturned by Congress (65 percent) — CORRECT CALL
As Congress fails to act on the expired Farm Bill, California’s Proposition 12 remains intact, protecting animal welfare standards.
Antibiotic Sales for Use in Livestock Production Will Have Increased by at Least 0.5 Percent in 2024 (55 percent) — CORRECT CALL
Despite lower initial expectations, antibiotic sales for livestock surged by 15.8 percent, a troubling trend with public health implications.
Bird Flu Results in the Deaths of at Least 30 Million Farmed Birds by the End of 2025 (60 percent) — CORRECT CALL
This current bird flu outbreak in the U.S. marked one of the worst years yet, with a staggering number of birds affected.
Argentina’s Yearly Inflation is Below 30 Percent (20 percent) — UNDECIDED
The fluctuating economic situation in Argentina remains a topic of contention as inflation statistics are still pending verification for the end of the year.
The 2025–2030 Federal Dietary Guidelines Advise Americans to Avoid Ultra-Processed Foods (30 percent) — UNDECIDED
Delayed guidelines from the federal government complicate predictions that revolve around dietary advice.
A Major Sports Gambling Scandal Leads at Least One All-Star in the Four Major Professional Sports to be Suspended (30 percent) — INCORRECT CALL
Although there was a significant scandal involving Emmanuel Clase, the legal definitions for suspension categorize it differently.
The predictions showcased an evolving landscape filled with extraordinary possibilities and challenges. For full insights and details, visit Here.
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