Gartner’s Forecast: A Decline in PC Sales and the Future of Entry-Level Devices
In a recent report, Gartner has forecasted a significant downturn in the PC market, predicting a slump of 10.4% in sales this year. This decline is largely attributed to rising costs in key components, with RAM prices being a particular concern for both manufacturers and consumers.
The Rising Costs of RAM
The surging price of RAM is projected to peak this year, expecting to account for an average of 23% of the total bill-of-materials (BOM) for PCs—a stark rise from just 16% in 2025. The BOM encompasses the cost of all components that constitute a PC, including the CPU, GPU, memory, SSD, motherboard, and additional hardware such as fans and power supplies. Ranjit Atwal, a senior director analyst at Gartner, noted that this sharp increase limits vendors’ ability to absorb costs, rendering low-margin entry-level laptops economically unviable.
As a result, Gartner forecasts that the sub-$500 entry-level PC segment may completely vanish by 2028. This prediction highlights a significant shift in the market landscape, one that could prompt budget-conscious consumers to reassess their purchasing strategies.
Implications for Consumers and the Market
The analyst firm’s projections indicate that PC shipments will drop notably in the coming years. By the end of 2026, Gartner anticipates that RAM and SSD costs will rise by 130%, which could lead to an overall price increase of approximately 17% for PCs compared to 2025. This trend represents the steepest contraction in device shipments experienced in over a decade, prompting consumers to reconsider their upgrade cycles.
Atwal emphasizes that higher prices are likely to narrow the range of devices available, which may lead buyers to hold onto their old devices for extended periods. Gartner estimates that by the end of this year, the average device lifespan will increase by about 20% for consumers, while business buyers could see an extension of around 15%.
The Future of PC Ownership
For those contemplating a purchase, particularly in the budget segment, now may be a prudent time to make a move before further price hikes occur. HP has already acknowledged that the price of RAM has sharply increased for its laptops, doubling its share of the BOM over a quarter. This sharp rise in costs only strengthens Gartner’s predictions regarding the future viability of budget PCs.
While the potential disappearance of sub-$500 PCs could benefit higher-end models, the impact of increased RAM and storage costs will also affect premium devices, likely reducing sales momentum in this segment as well. Therefore, consumers may find themselves holding onto their existing systems longer, especially those running outdated software, which poses potential security risks once extended support ends in October 2026.
Overall, the outlook for the PC market is challenging, characterized by rising costs and shifting consumer behaviors. As we navigate these changes, the importance of keeping informed about market trends becomes increasingly critical for consumers and manufacturers alike.
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