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The Dangers of a College Commencement Speech
There are many ways to bomb a college commencement speech. You could take a humorous, unconventional route, like Chris Pan did at Ohio State when he revealed he composed his speech while high on ayahuasca. Alternatively, you may end up delivering your entire message in the voices of annoying cartoon characters, as Tom Kenny and Bill Fagerbakke did at the University of Vermont. There are even more unfortunate scenarios, such as my graduation speaker in 2001, who admonished the graduating class for being ungrateful before his career went into a tailspin due to serious legal issues. (Yes, this speaker was Bill Cosby.)
However, one surefire way to incite backlash in 2026 would be to sing the praises of artificial intelligence (AI). Numerous speakers, including former Google CEO Eric Schmidt at the University of Arizona and real estate executive Gloria Caulfield at the University of Central Florida, discovered this the hard way. AI has become the focal point for growing anxieties surrounding the diminishing value of college degrees, leading many to believe that today’s graduates are in a precarious situation.
Why the Anxiety Over College Degrees?
A late-2025 NBC News poll revealed that 63 percent of voters questioned the worth of a college degree, while only 33 percent defended it. Gallup reported a similar decline in perceived importance: from 75 percent in 2010 to just 35 percent in 2025, marking a notable shift in public sentiment. Furthermore, recent graduates, aged 22 to 27, faced an unemployment rate of about 5.7 percent, which was higher than the national average of 4.3 percent. This decline in job opportunities is concerning, with an observed slowdown in hiring, especially for entry-level positions, which have decreased by about 35 percent in the last 18 months.
Is There Still Hope?
Despite these challenges, it’s crucial to remember that a rough start does not guarantee a bleak future. Long-term impacts of AI remain uncertain, yet data still suggests that for most graduates, obtaining a degree is a worthwhile investment. The prevailing sentiment among recent graduates may be grim, but when current circumstances are examined against actual outcomes, the news may not be as bad as perceived.
The Financial Reality of Higher Education
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York conducted research in 2025 and concluded that a college degree yields a median return on investment of 12.5 percent when factoring in the cost of tuition and lost earnings. Recent figures show that college graduates earn a median annual income of around $80,000, compared to $47,000 for those with only a high school diploma. Government statistics from 2024 indicated that median weekly earnings for workers with bachelor’s degrees stood at $1,543, significantly higher than the $930 earned by high school graduates.
When the focus shifts from the theoretical value of college to individual experiences, perceptions change. According to a 2026 Gallup poll, around 80 percent of bachelor’s graduates consider their degree critical or important to their careers, and 71 percent reported securing a good job within six months of graduation. This sentiment echoes the paradoxical viewpoint often expressed regarding Congress: constituents may express disdain for the institution as a whole but view their own representatives favorably.
Navigating Uncharted Waters
Reflecting on the past, it’s evident that 2026 isn’t the first time college graduates have faced a challenging job market. For instance, the class of 2001 graduated into an economy characterized by an unemployment rate of only 1.4 to 1.7 percent for college grads aged 25 to 34, only to see this change dramatically in the wake of the dot-com crash and 9/11. Similarly, the class of 2010 encountered an unemployment rate of 7 percent among recent graduates, but both cohorts eventually recovered as the economy improved.
The distinctiveness of the class of 2026 does include heightened worries, particularly concerning AI’s potential threat to entry-level jobs. Recent findings from Goldman Sachs indicate a near 3 percentage point increase in unemployment for young adults in tech roles since early 2025, while Stanford research highlights a 20 percent employment drop for young software developers in automatable jobs.
Conclusion: A Message to the Class of 2026
While uncertainty looms large for the graduating class of 2026, it is essential to recognize that a college degree holds inherently valuable potentials, even in turbulent times. Though data shows that 52 percent of graduates encounter underemployment within a year, evidence suggests that persistence often pays off. Choosing the right field of study influences job prospects significantly, and the broader societal shifts in education mean that while challenges exist, opportunities for success also remain.
If I were given the opportunity to address the class of 2026, I would encourage them to embrace their challenges, acknowledging the uncertain seas ahead while reminding them that their diplomas remain the most reliable vessels they possess in charting their futures.
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